The consumer credit card market is undergoing significant changes, and issuers must be ready to adapt. In this report, Javelin Strategy & Research tracks key market indicators to demonstrate the mounting risk that may hurt issuers at the end of the year and into 2024. We find that consumer credit payment volumes continue to grow and debt increases—a signal that consumers are not paying down their balances. We also see charge-offs rising across banks of all sizes, and these are alarmingly high among small and midsize banks. These banks must carefully manage their risk and cover loan losses to protect their bottom lines. We also examine the impact of student loan payments resuming in October, which will cause a significant strain on consumer spending and may exacerbate growing issues in household budgets. Issuers may respond to this audience through targeted marketing campaigns and promotional offers. In addition to these areas, we look at the potential impact of future regulations, most notably the Credit Card Competition Act of 2023 and its potential effects on the future of consumer credit cards. We maintain that passage of the act into law will cause significant changes to the U.S. credit card rewards landscape and may not work as intended.

Key questions discussed in this report:

• What are the major credit card trends concerning card volumes and overall growth?
• How are issuers responding to the economic environment, and what can we learn from their moves?
• How should small and medium issuers prepare for the turbulent economic environment?
• How will the Credit Card Competition Act—colloquially called Durbin 2.0—affect the credit market if it’s enacted?

Companies mentioned:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Capital Bank, Chase, Elavon Financial Services, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, ICBA, KeyBank, Laurel Road, Mastercard, National Association of Business Economics, Sallie Mae, SoFi, TCM Bank, TD Bank, U.S. Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, Visa