Imagining a Cardless U.S. Payments Landscape, Part 1

Any contemplation of a cardless future in U.S. payments starts with a definition of terms: The question is whether the form—physical credit and debit cards wielded at the point of sale—will survive. The function—payments that take place on card network rails—in all likelihood will persist far past the point that is visible on any reasonable horizon, given the popularity of such payments and the attendant benefits of incentives and security. The U.S. payments landscape is fragmented and, in its way, dynamic. The game-changing innovation that knocks cards from their perch isn’t necessarily visible yet, but plenty of contenders are in the mix, looking for percentage points to lop off. In the end, the cumulative effect of these many forms is likeliest to move cards off the stage. 

This Javelin Strategy & Research report considers a future without cards, giving it shape in the viewfinder through data about current payments behavior and attitudes about up-and-coming forms. It also outlines how the environment of U.S. payments—populated by many forms and fragmented usage of them—to some degree shields cards, by far the most popular payment method, from their many challengers.

Key questions discussed in this report: 

• What does “card” mean now vs. what it might mean—or whether it will have meaning—in the future? 
• What factors would usher in a cardless U.S. payments landscape? 
• How is that future landscape coming into view, especially with regard to digital/mobile wallets and the implementation of digital ID?

Companies Mentioned: 

Apple, Chick-fil-A, Google, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Samsung, Starbucks, Venmo, Visa, Zelle