Seven Credit Card Warning Signs in 2025: Don’t Stop Lending, but Watch Out

For credit card managers, assessing risk metrics and adjusting their strategies are the bedrock aspects of the job. Right now, those messages are mixed. Unemployment is steady, inflation remains high but is better than last year, yet consumers are pulling back from discretionary spending. Lenders are less confident, and credit card delinquencies are running well above recent averages. A recession—which is a cyclical certainty—will further muddle matters. 

This Javelin Strategy & Research report takes a broad look seven key risk indicators—revolving debt, consumer confidence, lending sentiment, unemployment, inflation, delinquencies, and charge-offs—and prescribes actions credit managers can undertake to moderate matters.

Key questions discussed in this report: 

• How will credit card profitability perform in 2025?
• What developments should credit card issuers watch for?
• How do unemployment, charge-off, and delinquency rates look for credit card issuers?
• Should credit card issuers freeze lending?
• What happened to the revenue threats from 2024 regarding fees and rates?

Companies Mentioned: 

American Express, Bank of America, Barclaycard, Capital One, Citi, Chase, Discover, FICO, FIS, Fiserv, IBM, Mastercard, Navy Federal, SAS, TD Bank, USAA, Visa, Wells Fargo