2026 Commercial Payments Factbook

This report provides a 2026 outlook for the U.S. commercial payments market, with forecasts for major B2B payment instruments including ACH, check, real-time payments, and large-market commercial cards. Unlike the prior edition, it uses both baseline and pessimistic scenarios to reflect the greater macroeconomic uncertainty now facing the market, especially the risk of a prolonged energy shock and its implications for growth, inflation, and business spending. 

Readers will gain a clearer view of how payment volumes are likely to evolve through 2029, where downside risk is most pronounced by instrument and card product, and which sector characteristics create stronger openings for virtual cards and purchasing cards. The report is intended to help financial institutions, payments providers, and technology firms understand where commercial payment demand is shifting, how product mix may change under stress, and where to focus strategy, sales, and product positioning.

Key questions discussed in this report: 

• How are ACH, check, RTP, and commercial card volumes expected to evolve through 2029 under both baseline and pessimistic scenarios?
• Which commercial payment products are most exposed to downside risk in a weaker economic environment, and which are more resilient?
• Which industries and sectors offer the strongest opportunities for corporate card, purchasing card, and virtual card growth based on spend mix and working-capital conditions? 

Companies Mentioned: 

American Express, Fiserv, Mastercard, US Bank, Visa