2026 Credit Card Risk: Happy Days are Here Again (For Top Issuers)

The year bodes well, as 2026 approaches the end of the first quarter. Economic indicators are strong, the credit card market is growing at a healthy rate, and credit cards remain the dominant payment method as inflationary pressures drive higher volumes. Some macroeconomic indicators, such as gross domestic product, softened, but unemployment remains below 5%, and inflation has moderated. Most importantly, delinquencies and charge-offs are up slightly, but appear to be well under control. (For more information on economic conditions and card trends, see the 2026 Credit Card Databook.) 

Looking forward, U.S. credit card issuers face a strong market, and delinquency pipelines, which portend the year’s charge-off risks, are up slightly but well under control. With a charge-off standard that requires issuers to purge delinquents from their loan books at 180 days contractually delinquent, write-off risk will be locked for the year at the end of the second quarter, leaving issuers with clear targets for settling payment arrangements. Three significant industry events recently occurred that will affect how the credit card industry will form over the next two years. These are positive factors that will impact operations as we approach the latter half of the current decade. These factors include Chase’s integration of the floundering Goldman Sachs Apple Card portfolio, Capital One's integration of a fintech business card model, and Huntington National Bank's acquisition of Cadence Bank, a regional player. 

The latter is a bellwether of industry consolidation. In 2025, there were 162 credit union mergers. Bank mergers were also significant, with three top deals: Fifth Third and Comerica, Huntington Bank and Cadence Bank, and PNC and First Bank. The number of institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation amounted to 4,379 in 2025, down from 4,517 in 2024 and 5,002 in 2020.

Companies Mentioned: 

American Express, Ally Bank, Apple, Bank of America, Barclay, BMO, Cadence Bank, Capital One, Citigroup, Citizens, Comerica, Discover, FIS, Fifth Third, Fiserv, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Huntington, JPMorgan Chase, KeyCorp, Mastercard, M&T, Merrick Bank, PNC, RBC USA, Regions, Santander, TD Group, Truist, UBS Americas, US Bancorp, Visa, Wells Fargo