2014 Retail Point of Sale Payment Forecast: The Mobile Payment Square-Effect and Prepaid Card Popularity Drive Cash Down by 10%

The point of sale (POS) retail market is evolving like never before, as traditional paper-based payments (cash and check) have increasingly lost favor with consumers and merchants and are quickly being replaced by plastic cards and alternative payments. While the growth of e-commerce has devastated many brick-and-mortar merchants, others have thrived and POS shopping still represents the bulk of domestic retail spend (92%). This report evaluates the actual and forecast changes in the retail POS market, tracking payments mix data from 2012 through the forecast year of 2019 and identifying key drivers of market change. In addition to highlighting domestic in-store retail growth during 2013, this report details Javelin’s forecasts for total retail POS payments volume and analyzes share and transaction growth at the POS for credit cards, debit cards, cash, paper checks, prepaid cards, gift cards, and mobile proximity payments. 

Primary Questions:

• What are the major trends for domestic retail POS payment transactions? 
• How will traditional non-card payment options — cash and paper checks — fare as card-based payment vehicles continue to grow in popularity? 
• Will traditional card-based payment options, including credit and debit, maintain current dollar volumes, or will nontraditional options like prepaid and gift cards infringe on their share? 
• Will mobile proximity payments disrupt the current POS payments ecosystem? 
• What factors influence consumer adoption and use of various payment options for in-store purchasing? 

• Survey conducted in November 2013 of a random-sample panel of 3,509 consumers